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Fergusons Beach ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.2

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote

Surf Report Feed

Fergusons Beach Swell Statistics, Spring: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Fergusons Beach that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal southern hemisphere spring. It is based on 8476 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.

The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was W (which was the same as the prevailing wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 20% of the time, equivalent to 18 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 0.6% of the time in a typical southern hemisphere spring, equivalent to just one day but 6% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 6%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Fergusons Beach is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Fergusons Beach about 20% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 76% of the time. This is means that we expect 87 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere spring, of which 18 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.