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Fergusons Beach ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.2

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote

Surf Report Feed

Fergusons Beach Swell Statistics, May: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Fergusons Beach that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical May and is based upon 2696 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was W (which was the same as the dominant wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 28% of the time, equivalent to 9 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal May but 9% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 9%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Fergusons Beach is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Fergusons Beach about 28% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 69% of the time. This is means that we expect 30 days with waves in a typical May, of which 9 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.