This image shows only the swells directed at El Rincon that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere summer. It is based on 5066 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was S, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0.5% of the time, equivalent to 0 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal northern hemisphere summer but 10% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 10%, equivalent to (9 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that El Rincon is quite sheltered from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at El Rincon about 0.5% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 1.5% of the time. This is means that we expect 2 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere summer, of which 0 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.