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El Carmel Point ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 5.0

Overall: 3.6

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Surf Report Feed

El Carmel Point Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at El Carmel Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 27% of the time, equivalent to 8 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal October. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds we think that that clean surf can be found at El Carmel Point about 27% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 22% of the time. This is means that we expect 15 days with waves in a typical October, of which 8 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.