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Church Cove ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 2.8

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Surf Report Feed

Church Cove Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Church Cove that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 8% of the time, equivalent to 2 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October but 6% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 6%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Church Cove is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Church Cove about 8% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 54% of the time. This is means that we expect 19 days with waves in a typical October, of which 2 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.