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Christmas Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.3

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Christmas Bay Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Christmas Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal southern hemisphere winter. It is based on 8738 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 24% of the time, equivalent to 22 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 0.8% of the time in a typical southern hemisphere winter, equivalent to just one day but 9% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 9%, equivalent to (8 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Christmas Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Christmas Bay about 24% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 34% of the time. This is means that we expect 53 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 22 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.