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Christmas Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.3

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Christmas Bay Swell Statistics, Spring: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Christmas Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere spring. It is based on 7252 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 19% of the time, equivalent to 17 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal southern hemisphere spring but 6% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 6%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Christmas Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Christmas Bay about 19% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 25% of the time. This is means that we expect 40 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere spring, of which 17 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.