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Cannon Beach/TolovanaBeach ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.5
Difficulty Level: 1.5
Crowds: 3.5

Overall: 3.0

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Cannon Beach/TolovanaBeach Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Cannon Beach/TolovanaBeach that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was W, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 25% of the time, equivalent to 8 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October but 9% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 9%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Cannon Beach/TolovanaBeach is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Cannon Beach/TolovanaBeach about 25% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 39% of the time. This is means that we expect 20 days with waves in a typical October, of which 8 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.