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Blue Duck Stream ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.8

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Surf Report Feed

Blue Duck Stream Swell Statistics, March: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Blue Duck Stream that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical March. It is based on 2716 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 20% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal March but 5% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 5%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Blue Duck Stream is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Blue Duck Stream about 20% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 52% of the time. This is means that we expect 22 days with waves in a typical March, of which 6 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.