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Big Lagoon ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 5.0

Overall: 2.8

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Surf Report Feed

Big Lagoon Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Big Lagoon that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was W, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 31% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 4% of the time in a typical October, equivalent to just one day but 15% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 15%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds we calculate that clean surf can be found at Big Lagoon about 31% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 63% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical October, of which 10 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.