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Bay Street ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.5
Difficulty Level: 2.0
Crowds: 2.5
Accommodation: 5.0

Overall: 3.8

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Bay Street Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure shows the combination of swells directed at Bay Street through an average northern hemisphere autumn, based on 8724 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Bay Street. In the case of Bay Street, the best grid node is 47 km away (29 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 12% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the WNW. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Bay Street and away from the coast. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Bay Street, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Bay Street run for about 88% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.