Awakino River Mouth Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Awakino River Mouth that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere winter and is based upon 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was W, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 8% of the time, equivalent to 7 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal southern hemisphere winter but 7% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 7%, equivalent to (6 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Awakino River Mouth is quite sheltered from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Awakino River Mouth about 8% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 31% of the time. This is means that we expect 35 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 7 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.