Awakino River Mouth Swell Statistics, January: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Awakino River Mouth that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal January. It is based on 2372 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 2.0% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal January but 9% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 9%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Awakino River Mouth is quite sheltered from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Awakino River Mouth about 2.0% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 18% of the time. This is means that we expect 6 days with waves in a typical January, of which 1 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.