Avalon-North Swell Statistics, January: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Avalon-North that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical January and is based upon 2372 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was E (which was the same as the prevailing wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 5% of the time, equivalent to 2 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal January. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Avalon-North is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Avalon-North about 5% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 40% of the time. This is means that we expect 14 days with waves in a typical January, of which 2 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.