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Avalon Point ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.2
Consistency of Surf: 2.8
Difficulty Level: 1.5
Wind and Kite Surfing: 4.5
Crowds: 3.7

Overall: 3.4

See all 18 ratings

Based on 5 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Avalon Point Swell Statistics, September: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Avalon Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal September. It is based on 2400 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 26% of the time, equivalent to 8 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 3% of the time in a typical September, equivalent to just one day but 10% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 10%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Avalon Point is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Avalon Point about 26% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 62% of the time. This is means that we expect 26 days with waves in a typical September, of which 8 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.