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Avalon Pier ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 3.3
Wind and Kite Surfing: 2.5
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 4 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Avalon Pier Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Avalon Pier that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere winter. It is based on 6931 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 23% of the time, equivalent to 21 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal northern hemisphere winter but 1.7% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 1.7%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Avalon Pier is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Avalon Pier about 23% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 32% of the time. This is means that we expect 50 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 21 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.