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Avalon Pier ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 3.3
Wind and Kite Surfing: 2.5
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 4 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Avalon Pier Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Avalon Pier that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere autumn and is based upon 8724 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 17% of the time, equivalent to 15 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal northern hemisphere autumn but 4% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 4%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Avalon Pier is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Avalon Pier about 17% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 37% of the time. This is means that we expect 49 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere autumn, of which 15 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.