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Avalanche ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.3
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 3.3
Eating: 3.0

Overall: 3.6

See all 18 ratings

Based on 3 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Avalanche Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Avalanche that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 49% of the time, equivalent to 15 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October but 12% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 12%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Avalanche is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Avalanche about 49% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 13% of the time. This is means that we expect 19 days with waves in a typical October, of which 15 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.