Assinie Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Assinie that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere summer and is based upon 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SSW (which was the same as the prevailing wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 8% of the time, equivalent to 7 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal northern hemisphere summer but 6% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 6%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Assinie is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Assinie about 8% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 92% of the time. This is means that we expect 91 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere summer, of which 7 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.