Asilomar Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Asilomar that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal February. It is based on 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 41% of the time, equivalent to 11 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 4% of the time in a typical February, equivalent to just one day but 23% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 23%, equivalent to (6 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Asilomar is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Asilomar about 41% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 58% of the time. This is means that we expect 28 days with waves in a typical February, of which 11 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.