Arpoador Swell Statistics, June: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Arpoador that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal June and is based upon 2306 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 34% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal June but 8% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 8%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Arpoador is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Arpoador about 34% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 15% of the time. This is means that we expect 15 days with waves in a typical June, of which 10 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.