Aropaonui Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aropaonui that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February. It is based on 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was ESE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 34% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal February. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Aropaonui is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Aropaonui about 34% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 46% of the time. This is means that we expect 22 days with waves in a typical February, of which 10 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.