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Arnold ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Arnold Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Arnold that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October and is based upon 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 55% of the time, equivalent to 17 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds we calculate that clean surf can be found at Arnold about 55% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 42% of the time. This is means that we expect 30 days with waves in a typical October, of which 17 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.