Army Beach Swell Statistics, May: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Army Beach that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical May and is based upon 2200 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 8% of the time, equivalent to 2 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal May. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Army Beach is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Army Beach about 8% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 26% of the time. This is means that we expect 11 days with waves in a typical May, of which 2 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.