Army Beach Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Army Beach that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere autumn and is based upon 7252 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 17% of the time, equivalent to 15 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal northern hemisphere autumn but 6% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 6%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Army Beach is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Army Beach about 17% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 45% of the time. This is means that we expect 56 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere autumn, of which 15 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.