Armadale Bay Swell Statistics, November: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Armadale Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal November and is based upon 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 40% of the time, equivalent to 12 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 7% of the time (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Armadale Bay is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Armadale Bay about 40% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 49% of the time. This is means that we expect 27 days with waves in a typical November, of which 12 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.