Armadale Bay Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Armadale Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal February. It is based on 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 40% of the time, equivalent to 11 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 8% of the time (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Armadale Bay is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Armadale Bay about 40% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 49% of the time. This is means that we expect 25 days with waves in a typical February, of which 11 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.