Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere summer and is based upon 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was W, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the WSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 4% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal northern hemisphere summer but 4% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 4%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) is quite sheltered from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) about 4% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 9% of the time. This is means that we expect 12 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere summer, of which 4 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.