Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) Swell Statistics, June: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical June. It is based on 2306 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was W, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 3% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal June but 10% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 10%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) is quite sheltered from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) about 3% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 6% of the time. This is means that we expect 3 days with waves in a typical June, of which 1 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.