Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal February. It is based on 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was W, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 29% of the time, equivalent to 8 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 9% of the time (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) is quite sheltered from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) about 29% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 31% of the time. This is means that we expect 17 days with waves in a typical February, of which 8 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.