Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) Swell Statistics, April: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical April and is based upon 2160 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was W, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 11% of the time, equivalent to 3 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal April but 11% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 11%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) is quite sheltered from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Ardnave Point and Bay (Islay) about 11% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 16% of the time. This is means that we expect 8 days with waves in a typical April, of which 3 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.