Apollo Bay Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Apollo Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal southern hemisphere winter and is based upon 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 55% of the time, equivalent to 50 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 26% of the time (24 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Apollo Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Apollo Bay about 55% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 43% of the time. This is means that we expect 89 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 50 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.