Apollo Bay Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Apollo Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere summer and is based upon 6931 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the S. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 37% of the time, equivalent to 34 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 7% of the time (6 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Apollo Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Apollo Bay about 37% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 56% of the time. This is means that we expect 85 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere summer, of which 34 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.