Apollo Bay Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Apollo Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February. It is based on 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SSE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 23% of the time, equivalent to 6 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 4% of the time in a typical February, equivalent to just one day but 12% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 12%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Apollo Bay is slightly protected from open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Apollo Bay about 23% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 68% of the time. This is means that we expect 25 days with waves in a typical February, of which 6 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.