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Anse Boileau Swell Statistics, Spring: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure illustrates the variation of swells directed at Anse Boileau through a typical southern hemisphere spring and is based upon 8724 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the shore so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Anse Boileau. In this particular case the best grid node is 32 km away (20 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 75% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.

The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was S, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SE. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Anse Boileau and out to sea. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Anse Boileau, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average southern hemisphere spring, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Anse Boileau run for about 17% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.