Anna Bay-Morna Point Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Anna Bay-Morna Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was ESE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 17% of the time, equivalent to 5 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal October but 13% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 13%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Anna Bay-Morna Point is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Anna Bay-Morna Point about 17% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 16% of the time. This is means that we expect 10 days with waves in a typical October, of which 5 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.