Andrew Molera State Park Swell Statistics, Spring: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Andrew Molera State Park that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere spring and is based upon 6580 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 27% of the time, equivalent to 25 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 2% of the time (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Andrew Molera State Park is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Andrew Molera State Park about 27% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 63% of the time. This is means that we expect 82 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere spring, of which 25 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.