Anawhata Road (Oaonui) Swell Statistics, Spring: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Anawhata Road (Oaonui) that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere spring. It is based on 7252 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 16% of the time, equivalent to 15 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal southern hemisphere spring but 6% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 6%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Anawhata Road (Oaonui) is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Anawhata Road (Oaonui) about 16% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 69% of the time. This is means that we expect 77 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere spring, of which 15 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.