Aln Estuary Swell Statistics, November: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Aln Estuary that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical November. It is based on 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NNE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WSW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 12% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal November but 5% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 5%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Aln Estuary is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Aln Estuary about 12% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 13% of the time. This is means that we expect 8 days with waves in a typical November, of which 4 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.