All Day Bay Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at All Day Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was S, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 37% of the time, equivalent to 11 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October but 9% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 9%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that All Day Bay is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at All Day Bay about 37% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 36% of the time. This is means that we expect 23 days with waves in a typical October, of which 11 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.