Alkimos Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Alkimos that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere winter and is based upon 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NNE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 48% of the time, equivalent to 44 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 3% of the time (3 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Alkimos is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Alkimos about 48% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 51% of the time. This is means that we expect 90 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 44 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.