Alkimos Swell Statistics, April: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Alkimos that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal April. It is based on 2160 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SSE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 44% of the time, equivalent to 13 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal April but 8% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 8%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Alkimos is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Alkimos about 44% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 56% of the time. This is means that we expect 30 days with waves in a typical April, of which 13 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.