Aligator Rock Swell Statistics, March: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Aligator Rock that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical March. It is based on 2220 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 47% of the time, equivalent to 15 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 8% of the time (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Aligator Rock is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Aligator Rock about 47% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 13% of the time. This is means that we expect 19 days with waves in a typical March, of which 15 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.