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Aligator Rock ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 4.0

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Surf Report Feed

Aligator Rock Swell Statistics, August: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Aligator Rock that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical August and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.

The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 8% of the time, equivalent to 2 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal August but 6% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 6%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Aligator Rock is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Aligator Rock about 8% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 1.0% of the time. This is means that we expect 3 days with waves in a typical August, of which 2 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.