Ala Moana Bowls Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ala Moana Bowls that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was S, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 13% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Ala Moana Bowls is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Ala Moana Bowls about 13% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 18% of the time. This is means that we expect 10 days with waves in a typical October, of which 4 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.