Ala Moana Bowls Swell Statistics, August: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ala Moana Bowls that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical August. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was S, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 26% of the time, equivalent to 8 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal August but 8% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 8%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Ala Moana Bowls is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Ala Moana Bowls about 26% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 44% of the time. This is means that we expect 22 days with waves in a typical August, of which 8 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.