Akito River Mouth and Reef Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Akito River Mouth and Reef that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal southern hemisphere winter. It is based on 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 27% of the time, equivalent to 25 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal southern hemisphere winter but 6% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 6%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Akito River Mouth and Reef is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Akito River Mouth and Reef about 27% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 39% of the time. This is means that we expect 60 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 25 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.