Akito River Mouth and Reef Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Akito River Mouth and Reef that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February. It is based on 2102 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NNE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 25% of the time, equivalent to 7 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal February but 11% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 11%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Akito River Mouth and Reef is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Akito River Mouth and Reef about 25% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 38% of the time. This is means that we expect 18 days with waves in a typical February, of which 7 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.