Akito River Mouth and Reef Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Akito River Mouth and Reef that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere autumn and is based upon 6580 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 30% of the time, equivalent to 27 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal southern hemisphere autumn but 5% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 5%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Akito River Mouth and Reef is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Akito River Mouth and Reef about 30% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 33% of the time. This is means that we expect 57 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere autumn, of which 27 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.