Ajo Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Ajo that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October and is based upon 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SSE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 50% of the time, equivalent to 16 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October but 10% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 10%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Ajo is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Ajo about 50% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 42% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical October, of which 16 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.